Stealing home

I have finished my 3 leagues with the 2023 season Strat cards.  I have Blanco on each of those teams and for the same reason, to steal home.  The 3 leagues are 16 teams, 18 teams and 20 teams.  Only the 20-team league allows a 10% add on of AB and IP.  Those are all similar leagues.

In those 3 leagues, all the other teams combined stole home 4 times and were caught 12 times.  I assume most of those were failed suicide squeeze attempts.  The only players that stole home were Abrams (1) and De La Cruz (3).  My teams stole home 32 times and were caught 44 times.  Only 26 of those were by Blanco, the others are Velasquez (4), McCarthy (1) and Sabol (1).  I am pretty sure that Sabol was safe on a ‘failed’ suicide squeeze attempt.  My teams were successful 42% of the time and all the other teams were successful just 25% of the time.  My chances are usually 35%.  I usually attempt stealing home with 2 outs so I compare that 35% with the hit chances for the batter.  Usually, I pinch run with Blanco on 1st and steal my way to third, if he can make it.

In all 3 leagues, Blanco had 280 steals and 68 caught.  That is 80.5%!  186 steals of 2nd for 93.9%, 68 steals of third for 74.7% and 26 steals of home for 44.1%.  All that effort resulted in 145 runs scored.  I was expecting more runs scored when I tallied up the numbers but that is still a good total.

On the two teams that I thought could win the entire league, Blanco stole 80 and 77 bases.  For the team that I was rebuilding the pitching staff, Blanco stole 123 bases, mostly in my 80 home games.  In fact, most of the steals are happening in my home games as Hal is no where near as aggressive as me with pinch running.

Another interesting fact is how some of the percentages varied in each league.  In the 18-team league, I was 5 out of 21 stealing home, for 24%.  In the 16-team league, I was 15 for 36 stealing home, for 42%.  In the 20-team league, I was 12 for 19 stealing home, for 63%.  In the 18-team league, I remember that Blanco was like 0 for 7 stealing home at one point and it still didn’t deter me.

I didn’t have any future expectations when I drafted Blanco in the 5th round of all 3 leagues.  He was clearly an overdraft.  I know some people viewed that as a mistake too.  He was a one-year wonder in my mind and that was ok.  I had no idea he would repeat his year and I might have a shot at the same type of card, and maybe he’ll even be better.  I would say that I got lucky with that draft pick.

I still buy the actual cards.  Last year, the Locastro card went into my baseball trophy case and this year I’ll have to add Blanco’s card.

Oct 2024 Projections Issue

I’m hoping to send out the issue by Oct 24.

I’ll try to send out renewal reminders around that time. You can always email me at my gmail account to see if your subscription is current.

I added something new to the pitcher projections. The gbA’s. These are more like a max number since the X chances, walks, hits, ball parks and K’s take priority on the card. So, if a player has a gbA of 6, it could be 6 against both lefties and righties, or a 5 vs LHB and a 7 vs RHB. If he is an extreme strikeout pitcher, he might have 0 of those 6 on his card. No firm rules on this one.

If a subscriber wants to review the fielding for their favorite team, I can send that to you.

The Rookie list took a back seat to the projections. I’ll catch that up after the issue is out.

A crazy summer for me

I was in my tent late at night, checking mostly on baseball scores, on a backpacking trip in April of 2023 on the Appalachian Trail in Georgia, when I listened to the phone message from Columbia Presbyterian in New York informing me that I had matched as a kidney donor for my daughter. At the time, the transplant was not something that wasn’t going to happen immediately and I continued on my month long walk in the woods all the way to North Carolina.

After going through every grueling (for me) medical test possible during the summer after I got back from trip, in September, I was deemed healthy enough to donate. They don’t want to create another patient so they’re really careful about taking one of your vital organs. By the fall, with her numbers dropping, it was determined that the transplant would happen in early 2024. I had a face to face Strat draft slated for February in Orlando, and I asked my daughter if she thought she could hold out until March. I know, how selfish of me but I did have a good draft.

In trying to figure out how I would go through the recovery process, home alone with nothing to do, I decided to go back to work in January to give me something to do and cover some of the costs. Terry couldn’t be the care giver for both of us and she’d stay in New York with our daughter. The job was a lifesaver for me! The robotic surgery happened in mid March in New York. They had me walk into the operating room with full view of the instruments and I had thoughts of an alien abduction. It was only for a few seconds but that image will stay with me forever. I was only in the hospital for 32 hours. My sister and her husband took care of me for two weeks in New Jersey before I was allowed to come home. They were amazing. I was happy when my surgeon told me that I could go home and I’d never have to see him again (his words, not mine and it was a joke, he was great!)

I did get to spend some time in New York. I did manage to get to one Yankees game this summer. I was also official scorekeeper for my son’s softball team at a tourney in Central Park. Terry and I got to see the Notebook on Broadway. I’m doing great and getting back in shape playing pickle ball. My daughter is doing very well, back to work and going to grad school. Now, I’m switching to part time at work, taking a few weeks off for the projections issue and getting ready to retire again! So, if I was late answering your email or didn’t post anything on this site, you can see why.

It all seems sort of surreal now. It’s like something that happens to other people or in a Hallmark movie. But, I have the scars to remind me that it really did happen.

In Strat, I have two strong playoff teams and another team with a solid core of future pitchers (as if that’s possible). Strat, as much as my job, helped me get through all of this too. I’m looking forward to working on the LBB again! I can’t believe I’ve been doing this for 40 years now! Thanks in advance for your continued support!

Take care, John

An Amazing Comeback!

I’ve been playing Strat long enough to know that almost anything is possible.  Yet, I’m still surprised at my luck from time to time.

A few weeks ago, Paul and I were struggling through a series via netplay when in the middle of game 4 I suggest that we finish the game by phone and play the rest tomorrow.  I told Paul to keep the game on his computer and I’d manage via the phone.  It had already been a very lucky series for me and I had won the first 3, which were close games.

We saved the current game and restarted it manually in the top of the 6th.  I’m down 3-2.  I go out 1-2-3 and he doesn’t score in the 6th.  In the top of the 7th, I load the bases after two out and do not score.  He doesn’t score in the 7th.  I again threaten after two out, and get two on in the 8th, but Yandy Diaz can’t drive in the run.  After 1 out in the bottom of the 8th, I have Ragans in relief, he gives up a walk, a single, an rbi single, another walk and a HBP to drive in the second run.  I’m down 5-2 heading into the top of the 9th.

Kelly comes in for Paul and gets Realmuto and Clement out.  So, 2 out, top of the 9th, down 5-2.  Triolo singles, Chapman walks and in the clutch now, Blanco pinch hits for Haggerty with Mlodzinski on the mound.  I have already decided that if Blanco hits a triple, I’m stealing home to try to tie the game.  He doesn’t, he walks.  Bases loaded now, 2 out.  Willie Castro comes up and I decide to pinch hit with James McCann who is plus in the clutch vs rhping.  McCann comes through with a two run single.  1st and 3rd, two out, Betts batting.  How many of you would steal home at this point, trailing 5-4?  Blanco steals home!  Tie game!  McCann goes to 2nd,  and Betts gets the IBB bringing up Juan Soto, who grounds out!

Tanner Scott shuts Paul down in the bottom of the 9th to send the game into extra innings. 5-5, top of the 10th.

Juan Soto starts off the inning on 2nd base.  Yandy Diaz promptly drives him in and goes to second on the throw home.  After a strikeout, Clement drives in Diaz with a single.  Mateo pinch runs, Triolo walks, Chapman bunts them over to 2nd and 3rd to bring up Blanco in the clutch again.  This time he flies out.  I’m up 7-5 heading into the bottom of the 10th.

Bogearts starts the inning on 2nd base.  Scott whiffs both Jankowski and Westburg before walking Casas.  Pressly comes in and induces Kepler to ground out to second base to end the game.

Feb 2024 Draft Guide Correction

For the top 200 list: W. Miley is listed twice. M. Strahm should be #95 on the list.

2. I swapped the ages for Luis Garcia, the pitchers. Luis Garcia, Houston is 27. Luis Garcia, San Diego is 37.

3. I left some rookies off the rookie list. Insert these on the rookie list in the draft guide.

141.5 Ji Hwan Bae, 24, LHB, 2b/cf, Pirates - He didn’t hit much but he manged to steal 24 bases in 33 attempts. He stole 11 bases in April and almost stopped stealing in the second half, stealing just 4 in 7 attempts to finish out his season. It’s interesting that he batted .178 while hitting in the lead off spot and .299, with a .354 OBP, while batting 8th. He also batted .297 in the clutch, hence, the plus 10 clutch rating in Strat. He’ll battle for the 2b job with the Pirates.

114.5 Robert Garcia, 28, LHP, rp, Nats - He’s got a good relief card with limited innings. He K’d 33 in 32 innings. He didn’t give a home run in September after allowing 3 in August. At AAA in 2023, he K’d 62 in 41 innings and it was he second successful season at AAA. He spent very little time at the AA level. He’ll be back in the Nats bullpen in 2024.

120.5 Curtis Mead should be moved up on the draft list. I ranked him low at 163 because of his defense. It looks like the Rays may deal Harold Ramirez to make a spot for Mead to be their full time DH.

Does anyone want to review the fielding projections for their favorite team?

If you’ve got a favorite team and you’re an LBB subscriber, I can send you the fielding projections for that team to get your feedback. I would need it back by Monday, Oct. 16. I’ll have to cut it off at the first three people per team and only to subscribers who purchase the projections. I always have a lot of fun reading the feedback and it helps me decide on a rating for the players who are on the bubble. Is Baez a ss-2 or a ss-3? Can Kepler hold onto a rf-1? What will Strat give Volpe at ss after the Fielding Bible named him as the leading contender for the Gold Glove at ss? Use the JLamanna16@gmail.com address. Thanks in advance.

Tim Locastro

I’ve got Tim Locastro on two of my teams. I’ve got Tim Locastro running wild for both of those teams.

Both of those teams play in HR-18 parks which might put a damper on stealing for a lot of managers.. MMDA is a 20 team league with 26 man active rosters. SOMNADA is a 16 team league with 26 man active rosters. Most of the steals have come in the home games. MMDA has a 10% add on for at-bats and SOMNADA is just 4%.

In SOMNADA, I have a 46-45 record. Locastro has 82 steals and 15 caught. He’s batted 11 times with 1 home run. He’s played just 45 innings in the field. He is 49 of 52 stealing second, 26 of 33 stealing third and amazingly, 7 of 12 stealing home. I believe that he’s got more steals in SOMNADA since I don’t have a playoff team.

In MMDA, I have a 59-40 record. Locastro has 57 steals in 70 attempts. He’s batted 29 times with 4 home runs and he’s logged 87 innings in the field. He’s 35 of 38 stealing second, 18 of 25 stealing third and 4 of 7 stealing home.

The chance of stealing home is 35% and probably less with the pick-off chances. Combined, Locastro is 11 of 19, which is 58%. All of these stealing home chances have been with 2 out. I’m hoping that my luck holds out for the rest of the season because this has been a lot of fun for me. One team has sluggers Alvarez/Freeman and the other has Judge/Arenado, and I’m having more fun running with Locastro.

Good luck with your seasons and with your playoff runs, John

It’s the last series of the season and I am playing for two things.  One, I have an outside chance of making the playoffs.  The other playoff bound team is sitting at 83 wins with 4 games left, I have 81 wins and I also have just 4 games left.  We’re not playing against each other.  Two, Tim Locastro has a chance of setting a SOMNADA and the major league baseball stolen base records for steals in a season.  Locastro is sitting at 133 steals at the start of play.

I managed to win 3 of 4 games.  The scores were W 6-3, L 6-4, W 4-3 and a W 9-6.  This put me in a tie for the last playoff spot that I lost out on due to the tiebreaker rules of the league.  I didn’t have the pitching for a playoff run

More important to me was the stolen base record.  The plan was to insert Locastro as soon as possible for the players with limited at-bats like Bichette, Machado, Freeman and Alvarez.  Yeah, this team can hit.  The pinch running worked out pretty well except for a couple of hiccups.

In game 1, Locastro pinch ran for Machado in the 3rd innings, he stole 2nd and 3rd (#’s 134 and 135) before Alvarez knocked him in with a single.  I’d have attempted to steal home but I usually wait for two out before attempting that.  I pulled Locastro in the 7th, to save at-bats and to try to win the game.

In game 2, Locastro pinch ran for the leadoff batter, Bichette, in the first inning.  He stole 2nd and 3rd (#’s 136 and 137) and scored when the next batter hit a sac fly.  Locastro stayed in the game, he hit a home run, hit a fly out that looked like a ballpark home run and he walked.  After the walk, Locastro was gunned down on a 95% steal chance.  Ouch!

In game 3, I was ahead 2-1 in the 7th, when Garcia lead off with a single.  After he failed to get the lead, I pinch ran with Locastro who was gunned down again on a 95% chance.  I let out an uncontrollable “I hate you” which may have been directed at the game or my opponent or both.  These games were being played via NetPlay. Either way, we laughed about it later.  My chances of setting the record were dwindling.  Locastro did stay in the game to ground out in the 9th vs the unhittable Feyereisen.

I’m down to my last game.  Don’t they say that bad things come in 3’s!  In the 7th, Locastro pinch ran for Casas and he couldn't get the lead.  What?  His chance to get the lead is 2-12!  Killer! His chances were too low at 50%.  I tried to bunt him to second, so I can steal third base, but it was a fielder’s choice and Locastro was out at second.  Locastro stays in the game even though I figure my noble quest to set a record has ended.

In the 9th, the other manager brings in Helsley and brags that his ERA is a miniscule 0.47!  He’d only given up 2 runs all year!  LeMahieu walks, Adell gets his first appearance of the season as a pinch runner, Locastro gets the signal for a hit & run, and he delivers a single.  1st and 3rd, no out, Locastro steals 2nd (#138), Moore pinch runs at third for Adell, Moore is out stealing home on a 30% chance, Locastro moves to third, Locastro steals home on a 35% chance.  This is steal #139!  Amazing!

For the SOMNADA season, Locastro is 139/39, this includes 82 of 95 stealing 2nd, 43 of 56 stealing 3rd and 14 of 27 stealing home.  13 caught of each base surely makes that his unlucky number.

In the MMDA league, in which I have 6 road games left, Locastro is 104/127.  He’s 61/66 stealing 2nd, 34/44 stealing 3rd and 9/17 stealing home. Yeah, I’ve had very good luck stealing home.

LBB Ohtani Rule simple change for Strat game

We can change just the one rule and incorporate the Ohtani rule only.  So, the manager can take Ohtani* out as a pitcher and the Ohtani hitter stays at dh.

 

Re-start your League!  Select Ohtani pitcher card in the league from team roster in your league.  Select the player option in the top menu, a drop down will reveal update player option.  A window will open up showing Ohtani’s name, if his name is not there, the league didn’t restart.  Add an asterisk to the end of Ohtani*.  That’s it.

 

Only the person making the league file needs to make the change.

 

I don’t see any reason not to use this in every league.  It’s just the right thing to do.  The ghost runner, 3 batter vs reliever rule and other rules can be voted on for specific leagues.  I agree that those sorts of changes should happen before the draft starts but the Ohtani rule is just the right thing to do.

Corrections to Jan 2023 and Feb 2023 LBB issues

Chris Flexen, SEA Hits vs RHB - 21.9; OB,TB (<>) vs RHB - 28.9,47.5(6); HR vs RHB - 3.6. The cause of the error is some blank cells in my master excel file. A good catch by a subscriber. Thanks.

This drops Flexen’s reliever rank number to 38.1 and he drops 14 spots on the reliever page, below the low inning relievers. His starting pitcher rank number drops to 42.7 and he’s now with the backwards righty starters, down 13 spots.

J. Barlow, TEX has his POW missing in some files, it is a 1:4

LBB Card Ratings Issue and Draft Guide will be sent out on Jan 19!

Both issues will be released tomorrow, Jan. 19! If you don’t receive it, check your trash or junk folder. Many times, the attachments cause the files to be considered junk mail. I am reducing the cover picture quality to keep the file smaller, and maybe that will help. If you don’t find it, email me asap. Everyone’s issue will be sent out within 5 minutes of each other and I’ll send it out around 8 am. Thanks for all the support this year and have fun with the numbers.

Card Ratings and Draft Guide updates

I receive a lot of emails asking for a date and I don’t have a set date when the issues will be out. I’m still working on both issues and since I’m retired, I started setting up the draft guide written pages before I even started the card ratings. I’ve never had the time to work both issues at once. It will most likely be the usual times for sending out both issues.

I believe that my new projections for the e ratings and overthrow T ratings for the catcher’s worked out well.

No changes planned to the Card Ratings issue contents. I have switched to two pages for each team. Hitters on one side, pitchers on the other. It allowed me to use the 10 font for easier reading. There are so many low inning pitchers that I was having to reduce the font for every team. I find it easier to use than last year’s issue when just a few teams needed two pages.

For the Draft Guide: There are 301 carded SOM players that didn’t get a card last year. That’s my rookie list. I have added the pitcher’s fielding into my ranking formula. The pitcher’s fielding will add between 0-1.9 chances to the on-base number and it is a constant for each pitcher. Every pitcher is now a C bunter so I have removed that column from some of my excel lists. I have added two pages for the designated hitters like I do for all the other positions. I have changed the pages with the top relievers vs LHB and RHB a little. I split off the great balanced relievers and just listed the true hard lefties/backwards righties vs LHB, and the true hard righties/backwards lefties vs RHB. Those great balanced relievers are atop the main reliever list and the closer list, they didn’t need to be here too, so this gives you a look at a few more guys who can help.

Current top ten rookies in draft order: Rutschman, JRod, Harris, Strider, Witt, Henderson, Carroll, Hunter Greene, Cruz and Moreno. I modified my entire list after all of the trades and signings.

An unbelievable half inning in a Strat playoff game

It was a playoff game and the score was tied 4-4. It was around the 6th inning. This wasn’t even my team, I was playing another team in my league for a friend. My opponent had gotten runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. The batter hit a long fly ball to cf and it was sure to be at least a sac fly. But no, fly ball out is my first break, it appears to be a sure sac fly but as you can read in the text below, the runner is called out on an appeal play. It was crazy. So the opponent is left with Nicky Lopez on 2nd and 2 out. Apparently, there is a chance on the x chart for an appeal play but I can’t remember this ever happening in a game that I played in. It was so crazy that I had to back up the text and take some screen shots just to capture it.

The runners were on 2nd and 3rd with no one out.

Steve Duggar hits a single to rf and Nicky Lopez now has a chance to score 1-19. My opponent asked me if I’m throwing and he is surprised when I say yes. The runner is thrown out at home, 1-19, to end the inning. My catcher was Buster Posey so maybe the 1 catcher blocking the plate came into play. Inning over, no runs scored. I lost the game but it was a wild inning. That’s the fun thing about Strat, anything can happen. I lost the playoff series but this may be my luckiest inning of all time!

Rookies

Rookie list up to 135!

As of Dec. 7, I have 135 of the 2022 Rookies posted on the link for the rookie list. I’m working on the rest and there is well over 200 players. I have moved guys around on the list and will continue to do so as more free agents sign and trades occur. Have fun. John

Corrections to 2022 Projections

These ages were not correct.  I don’t know what happened in excel with this as the last 15 players had a problem in the original excel file. Some of the corrections below have been made after the initial emailing.

AGES: Wolters, LAN 31; C. Wong, BOS 26; K. Wong, MIL 31; Wynns, SF 31; Yaz, SF 31; Yelich, MIL 30

Yepez, STL 24; J. Young, CHN 26; Zavala, CHA 28; Zimmer, all 3 cards, 29; Zunino, TAM 31

Dubon, all 3 cards, 27

 

L. Wade, SF  has a +1 arm and not a +12 arm

Yandy Diaz had his last name missing

Locastro, NYA card adjustment:  Hits 19-6, OBP vs L 40,93(8*), OBP vs R 11,14(W*), HR 17.5-0.0

Judge has an extra dash in his fielding number

Defense

My dilemma on defense is this.  Do I play Wong at 2b or do I play both Kiermaier and Betts as 1’s in the outfield?  It really comes down to the situation of the ball park and the opposing pitcher, and the defense is fairly close with the on-base chance calculated.  The tradeoff is Wong’s doubleplay chances vs Kiermaier’s -5 arm. The OBP added is 7.7 changes with 5.9 gbA chances if Wong is playing. Those numbers change to 8.7 and 3.4 with Kiermaier in cf/Betts in rf, and another strong arm is tough to factor in.

I used my own LBB Fielding Chart to make sure I was on the right track. See below.

Kolten Wong – 2b-1e6:  He will play when I need a LHB, I am playing in a pitcher’s park or I am in the lead.

Kevin Kiermaier – cf-1(-5)e5:  He will play when I need a LHB with N power, I am playing in a pitcher’s park or I am in the lead.

Mookie Betts – rf-1(-4)e13:  He will play cf to allow Dylan Moore to play 2b in my Washington Nats ball park with a home run 1-12 both ways and other home run parks.  Otherwise, he will be in rf most of the time.

Dylan Moore – 2b-3e34, rf-3(-1)e6:  He will play, mostly at 2b, in all of the home run parks with a 1-10+ ball park home run chance.

The constants on the fielding chart are Glasnow or Bradley at pitcher, Realmuto at C, Dom Smith at 1b, Castro at ss, Y. Diaz at 3b and Soto in lf.  I use Kiner-Falefa at 3b, Polance at ss, and Bader in lf for late innings defense.  I have Chapman at 3b and Hamilton in cf as defensive subs also.

All of this great defense allows me to take a chance with Castro at ss.  I just couldn’t resist that hitting card in my line-up.  I’ll probably pay a price for using him there so much.

screen shot of fielding chart.PNG

A baseball wife

Terry is handling subscriptions at the comcast address and if you have specific questions for me, you can send them to me at the gmail address.

There’s no crying in LBB season!

There’s no crying in LBB season!